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Lecturer(s)
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Bebčáková Iveta, Mgr. Ph.D.
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Pavlačka Ondřej, RNDr. Ph.D.
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Course content
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1. Decision making under risk: general formulation of the task, basic concepts. 2. Risk analysis. Monte Carlo method. Decision matrix. Probability trees. 3. Rules of decision-making under risk. Indeterministic theory of utility, construction of utility function for risk for given decision criterion, rule of expected utility. 4. Multistage decision processes, decision trees. Optimization of the portfolio of risk variants. 5. Multicriteria decision making under risk - generalized decision matrices, Saaty AHP, multicriteria functions of the utility for risk. 6. Basics of decision making under uncertainty. Basic principles and methods. 7. Game theory: General formulation of the task, game in normal form. Antagonistic conflict of two players, matrix games. 8. Non-antagonistic conflict of two players, double matrix games. 9. Conflicts with a larger number of decision-makers. 10. Decision making under risk and uncertainty from the point of view of game theory.
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Learning activities and teaching methods
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Lecture, Dialogic Lecture (Discussion, Dialog, Brainstorming), Activating (Simulations, Games, Dramatization)
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Learning outcomes
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Understand the basics of risk decision theory and game theory. Master the appropriate mathematical methods.
Comprehension Understand the fundamentals of the theory of decision making under risk and game theory. Manage corresponding mathematical methods.
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Prerequisites
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Knowledge of basic concepts of decision theory and probability theory.
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Assessment methods and criteria
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Oral exam, Written exam
Credit: the student must demonstrate the ability to apply decision-making methods in a written test. Exam: the student must demonstrate active knowledge of the theory and methods that are the content of the course.
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Recommended literature
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A.E. Roth. (2015). Who Gets What?and Why: The New Economics of Matchmaking and Market Design. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
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J. Bouška, M. Černý, D. Gluckaufová. (1984). Interaktivní postupy rozhodování. Academia, Praha.
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J. Fotr, J. Dědina, H. Hrůzová. (2003). Manažerské rozhodování. Ekopress, Praha.
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J. Fotr, M. Píšek. (1986). Exaktní metody ekonomického rozhodování. Academia, Praha.
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J. Geweke. (1980). Decision Making under Risk and Uncertainty. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht.
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J. Ramík. (1999). Vícekriteriální rozhodování - analytický hierarchický proces (AHP). OPF SU, Karviná.
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M. Maňas. (1991). Teorie her a její aplikace. SNTL, Praha.
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P. Dostál, K. Rais, Z. Sojka. (2005). Pokročilé metody manažerského rozhodování. Grada Publishing, Praha.
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R. Nau, E. Groen, M. Machina, O. Bergland. (1997). Economic and Environmental Risk and Uncertainty. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht.
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T. L. Saaty. (1980). The Analytical Hierarchy Process. McGraw-Hill New York.
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