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Lecturer(s)
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Nováček Pavel, doc. RNDr. CSc.
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Course content
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"Introduction to Futures Studies" is not about predicting the future. The purpose of this course is to systematically explore both possible and desirable futures to improve our decisions and decision making. The outcome of futures studies depends on the methods used and the skills of the practitioners. Its methods can be quantitative or qualitative. It helps to provide a framework to better understand the present and to expand mental horizons. Structure of the course: 1. History of futures studies 2. Key actors in futures studies during last 80 years 3. Definitions of futures studies and foresight, explorative and normative approach to futures studies 4. Methods of forecasting (branstorming, delphi method, extrapolation) 5. Methods of forecasting (scenario method, participatory methods, analogy method) 6. Methods of forecasting (megatrend analysis, simulation and games, genius forecasting) 7. Examples of interesting/inspiring projects (reports to the Club of Rome, Millennium Project) 8. Global trends influencing our common future (climate change, biodiversity) 9. Global trends influencing our common foture (violence, wars, infectious diseases) 10. Global trends (environmental issues - desertification, deforestation, ozone layer depletion etc.) 11. Opportunites and threts of global governance 12. What remains to be discovered? 13. Final discussions and conclusion.
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Learning activities and teaching methods
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Lecture, Dialogic Lecture (Discussion, Dialog, Brainstorming)
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Learning outcomes
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The principle objective is to make students familiar with history of future studies (foresight) and with selected foresight methods (for example delphi method, writting scenarios, extrapolation method, brainstorming, genius forecasting, etc.).
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Prerequisites
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unspecified
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Assessment methods and criteria
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Oral exam, Written exam
literature reading, essay writing and/or small-scale individual foresight project
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Recommended literature
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Bishop, Hines. (2012). Teaching about the Future.
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Nováček, P. (2015). Sustainable Development or Collapse, Regeneration and Transformation?. Palacký University Press, Olomouc.
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Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner. (2015). Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.. New York: Broadway books.
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Toffler, A., Tofflerová, H. (2001). Nová civilizace. Třetí vlna a její důsledky. Praha: Dokořán.
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